Crisis May Boost Big Banks’ Profits : Currency: Europe’s woes could benefit big U.S. banks, which account for 80% of the $100-billion daily foreign-exchange trade in America.

NEW YORK — Some big U.S. banks and brokerages with significant foreign-exchange operations are likely to get an earnings boost as a result of the currency crisis that erupted in Europe this week, analysts said Friday.

“The net impact will be positive,” said Francis X. Suozzo, analyst at London-based S. G. Warburg. “Some banks will make a lot, a few may take a hit.”

Allison Deans, banking analyst at Smith Barney, Harris Upham & Co., agreed, saying that profits at big banks this quarter will be “pretty healthy.”

Currency traders thrive on volatility by making lightning-quick decisions in the massive, lightly regulated currency market. With the touch of a computer button, the traders attempt to benefit from the swings in currency values, often at the expense of central banks that intervene by buying one currency in an effort to protect the value of their own.

Global currency trading doubled to more than $600 billion daily between 1986 and 1989, according to the Bank for International Settlements. Banks account for about 80% of the $100-billion-plus in currency deals that take place in the United States every day.

Banks generally do not comment on anticipated earnings, and none were confirming or denying reports of a windfall of riches on Friday.

But several analysts said they expect big third-quarter earnings increases at Bankers Trust New York Corp. and J. P. Morgan & Co., since those two New York-based money center banks derive the greatest percentage of revenue from currency trading.

Neither bank breaks foreign-exchange trading revenue out from other revenue, and neither comments on the contribution to net income.

At Morgan, about one-third of the 1991 revenue of $4 billion derived from trading; at Bankers, the percentage of 1991’s $3.3-billion revenue was slightly higher. The banks’ trading figures are not disclosed on a quarterly basis.

Others likely to prosper from the breakdown of the European currency agreement include Citicorp, Chemical Bank and Chase Manhattan, and to a lesser extent, Continental Illinois, First Chicago and Bank of America. Brokerages Salomon Inc. and Morgan Stanley are also believed to have enriched their coffers at the Europeans’ expense.

“It’s hard to come up with an easy rule of thumb on estimates about the size of profits,” said John Lipsky, chief economist at Salomon.

“Certainly, the more central banks intervened, the more they allowed private firms and investors to bet against their currencies. With the massive amount of intervention that took place, central banks and governments have ended up treating investors in the private sector quite generously.”

The anticipated gains come at a time when banks are already benefiting from low interest rates, which have greatly reduced their cost of funds. For those still wrestling with big portfolios of non-performing loans, this run of good fortune comes at an opportune moment.