Officials Expect Iraq Oil Cutoff to Be Short-Lived

UNITED NATIONS — Iraq’s decision to cut off oil exports has galvanized talks at the U.N. about long-standing economic sanctions against the country, but diplomats here argue that Baghdad’s attempt to pressure the Security Council will quickly run out of fuel.

“Their technique when they see their strategic position eroding is to blow up the pieces of the puzzle,” said a U.S. official working on the Iraq issue. Baghdad’s move Monday pushed world oil prices to their highest level in nine years.

The U.S. official noted that at least three times in as many years, Iraq has stopped pumping oil for up to a month to make a point, but then resumed exports. “The judgment here is that this is a temporary phenomenon,” the official said.

Iraq halted oil sales Monday to protest the United Nations’ refusal to routinely extend an “oil for food” program that allows Iraq to buy food and medicine and offset stringent sanctions levied in 1990 after the country invaded neighbor Kuwait.

Last week, the Security Council renewed the program for two weeks instead of the expected six months so members could continue talking about new conditions raised by Iraq’s closest Security Council ally, Russia, without deadline pressure. The Russian move was a bid to cut a better deal for Iraq.

Despite reports Tuesday by the director of Iraq’s oil-for-food program that Baghdad would be willing to accept a six-month extension on the regular terms, Iraqi Ambassador Saeed Hasan insisted that his country isn’t budging.

In a mixture of defiance, deliberation and desperation, Iraq wants to show the world it is still a major player, despite the West’s efforts to isolate it, diplomats say. Hasan said the decision when--or whether--to resume oil sales depends on what the Security Council has to offer Baghdad.

“They [the Security Council] discuss without engaging Iraq, without hearing our views, without hearing our legitimate concerns,” Hasan said. “They will decide, and we will see.”

Although by halting its oil sales Iraq is, in effect, cutting off its only source of revenue, Saddam Hussein’s regime has factored in a bit of cushion: It has about $2 billion left over from oil sales and about the same amount in humanitarian goods yet to be distributed.

Hasan said Iraq will fulfill outstanding oil contracts and give out the waiting food and medicine.

After that, he said, the suffering of the Iraqi people will be on the United Nations’ head.

“The real violation of human rights in Iraq,” Hasan said, “is the sanctions which deprive the whole population of food and medicine and humanitarian aid.”

Iraq is not alone in saying that the sanctions are hurting the wrong people, especially the elderly, women and children. Three of the Security Council’s five permanent members--France, Russia and China--have urged a suspension of penalties if Iraq agrees to let weapons inspectors and aid workers into the country.

The United States and Britain, however, have insisted until recently that all sanctions will stay in place until Iraq proves it has renounced weapons of mass destruction.

Last week, there was an unusual outburst of frustration among the Security Council’s 10 rotating members about how long it has taken the permanent members to come up with a new resolution dealing with the sanctions.

“For over a year, the council has failed in its responsibility to deal effectively with the Iraq problem,” said Robert Fowler, Canada’s ambassador.

He was joined by Dutch Ambassador Arnold Peter van Walsum, the co-sponsor of a new Iraq resolution, who politely but dramatically said the Dutch are “far from happy” with the permanent members’ fumbling.

Those denunciations, combined with Russia’s lone attempt on Iraq’s behalf, may have moved Baghdad to cut off oil sales to try to lever the parties apart, some diplomats speculate.

But in the past two days of intense negotiations, the United States and Britain apparently have agreed that evidence of “progress” toward compliance could lead to a conditional suspension of sanctions, and participants say the permanent members could approve a new resolution within two weeks.

“Two weeks is effectively a deadline,” said a diplomat from a Security Council nation, noting that the Iraqi oil move had been more distracting than destructive to efforts to reach agreement. “If anything, it makes people concentrate on getting things finished.”