Chances are ...

Are the Golden Globes a strong measure of what the Oscars are likely to do? With twice as many picks, they have a good chance of lining up with the academy’s choices somewhere along the line. Here’s how the two groups’ winners have stacked up in top categories over the last few years.

Oscars

Best Picture

2001 -- “A Beautiful Mind”

2002 -- “Chicago”

2003 -- “The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King”

2004 -- “Million Dollar Baby”

2005 -- “Crash”

Best Director

2001 -- Ron Howard, “A Beautiful Mind”

2002 -- Roman Polanski, “The Pianist”

2003 -- Peter Jackson, “The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King”

2004 -- Clint Eastwood, “Million Dollar Baby”

2005 -- Ang Lee, “Brokeback Mountain”

Best Actor

2001 -- Denzel Washington, “Training Day”

2002 -- Adrien Brody, “The Pianist”

2003 -- Sean Penn, “Mystic River”

2004 -- Jamie Foxx, “Ray”

2005 -- Philip Seymour Hoffman, “Capote”

Best Actress

2001 -- Halle Berry, “Monster’s Ball”

2002 -- Nicole Kidman, “The Hours”

2003 -- Charlize Theron, “Monster”

2004 -- Hilary Swank, “Million Dollar Baby”

2005 -- Reese Witherspoon, “Walk the Line”

Golden Globes

Picture

2001 -- “A Beautiful Mind” (drama), “Moulin Rouge!” (musical or comedy)

2002 -- “The Hours” (drama), “Chicago” (musical or comedy)

2003 -- “The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King” (drama), “Lost in Translation” (musical or comedy)

2004 -- “The Aviator” (drama), “Sideways” (musical or comedy)

2005 -- “Brokeback Mountain” (drama), “Walk the Line” (musical or comedy)

Director

2001 -- Robert Altman (“Gosford Park”)

2002 -- Martin Scorsese (“Gangs of New York”)

2003 -- Peter Jackson, “The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King”

2004 -- Clint Eastwood, “Million Dollar Baby”

2005 -- Ang Lee, “Brokeback Mountain”

Actor

2001 -- Russell Crowe (drama, “A Beautiful Mind”), Gene Hackman (musical or comedy, “The Royal Tenenbaums”)

2002 -- Jack Nicholson (drama, “About Schmidt”), Richard Gere (musical or comedy, “Chicago”)

2003 -- Sean Penn (drama, “Mystic River”), Bill Murray (musical or comedy, “Lost in Translation”)

2004 -- Leonardo DiCaprio (drama, “The Aviator”), Jamie Foxx (musical or comedy, “Ray”)

2005 -- Philip Seymour Hoffman (drama, “Capote”), Joaquin Phoenix (musical or comedy, “Walk the Line”)

Actress

2001 -- Sissy Spacek (drama, “In the Bedroom”), Nicole Kidman (musical or comedy, “Moulin Rouge!”)

2002 -- Nicole Kidman (drama, “The Hours”), Renee Zellweger (musical or comedy, “Chicago”)

2003 -- Charlize Theron (drama, “Monster”), Diane Keaton (musical or comedy, “Something’s Gotta Give”)

2004 -- Hilary Swank (drama, “Million Dollar Baby”), Annette Bening (musical or comedy, “Being Julia”)

2005 -- Felicity Huffman (drama, “Transamerica”), Reese Witherspoon (musical or comedy, “Walk the Line”)

(Note: Dates are year of film release)