Racing! Let’s take a look at the numbers after three weeks

Hello, my name is John Cherwa and welcome back to our horse racing newsletter as we dig down into Santa Anita’s handle numbers.

Let’s check in with some of the news since last we were together.

-- Things appear as if they are looking up at Santa Anita. After 13 days the total handle has gone from $109,723,782 to $125,850,812, or in a number we can all understand, it’s up 14.7%.

That sounds great but if you dig down you see that on-track, the handle actually has decreased by 0.27%, so we’ll call that flat especially because there was one more race last year to this (114-113). Santa Anita boss Tim Ritvo believes the on-track experience has to be great in order for the sport to ultimately stick around. So in this case, flat is not a success.

The brick-and-mortar off-track sites in the state decreased by 2.9%. Yet the California ADW numbers were up 14.7%, same as the total percentage.

The out-of-state handle was up a whopping 21%, no doubt partially due to the weather cancellations in the East, especially at New York’s Aqueduct and Stronach-owned Laurel in Baltimore.

“It’s a combination of everything,” Ritvo told Steve Andersen of the Daily Racing Form. “We had bad weather in the East. That goes both ways. If it’s horrible, no one goes to the track and it can hurt you. We’re fortunate that everything is going our way.”

To read Steve’s always solid reporting on this and more from Ritvo, just click here.

There have been some betting changes in the addition of a late pick five for $0.50, which has apparently cannibalized some of the $2 pick-six money, which has dropped about 18%. They’ve also added a rolling super high five (pick first through fifth, as if just picking first wasn’t difficult enough) for $1.

Given Ritvo’s track record (no pun intended) you have to believe he’s Santa Anita’s best shot for long-term viability. I’ve seen the passion and energy he puts in the job as he wanders around the track on race days. The guy doesn’t sleep and challenges his employees in and out of meetings.

Three weeks is not a very big sample size. But you have to wonder if there would not have been even the slightest of an on-track uptick if opening day were not the mutuel disaster of all the people who wanted to bet but couldn’t because of a lack of clerks.

And, then there is the sour taste that it leaves in the mouths of the fans, who won’t come back after that experience. I have little doubt it will be fixed for the next opening day or perhaps even the next big day.

It’s these numbers that the future of Santa Anita will rest on. We’ll check in from time to time on them.

-- While on the topic of Santa Anita, a single ticket took home $466,919.40 (hope they tipped the change) pick-six carryover on Monday. The winning ticket was bought at the Hollywood Park Casino for $2,880. I’m told by an unverified and possibly unreliable source that it was won by a couple guys who don’t really need the money but just enjoy playing the horses.

All of which gives me the opportunity to bring up my favorite line from the new movie “All the Money in the World.” It’s the story of the kidnapping of J. Paul Getty’s grandson. At one point Getty (played by Christopher Plummer, subbing in for the disgraced Kevin Spacey) is being told about the ransom by one of his operatives, Fletcher Chase (played by Mark Wahlberg). Getty doesn’t want to pony up the cash because he didn’t have the money to spare.

Chase: “No one has ever been richer than you are at this moment. What would it take for you to feel secure?”

Getty: “More.”

-- Cold weather canceled racing at Oaklawn and Fair Grounds on Thursday, although both tracks are expected to reopen on Friday. But, more cold and snowy weather will be making its way across the country in the coming days. Figuring more cancellations to come.

As for next Saturday and the Pegasus World Cup at Gulfstream, weather.com has a high of 78 and a low of 67. Floridians are a tough lot, so we figure they’ll brave the moderate temperatures and make it to the track.

-- Lady Eli, who got my first-place vote for Female Turf runner in the Eclipse Awards, has been retired. Despite being a pretty fine grass runner, she was the story of the last few years after contracting laminitis and then making it back to the track in top form. Unheard of. Check Lenny Shulman’s story in the Bloodhorse. Just click here.

Santa Anita preview

Kind of a typical first day of the week card. The feature is either the third, a 6 ½ furlong down the hill allowance/optional claiming turf race for 3-year-old fillies, or the sixth, a mile maiden special weight for 3-year-olds. There are three turf races, and six of the eight races have some kind of claiming tag attached to it.

One of Ritvo’s goals is to offer more races on the grass for cheaper claiming horses and while the third has an optional claiming tag of $75,000, the fifth is for $40,000 and eighth is $18,000-20,000.

The average field size is 8.25, just a tad below the meet average of 8.93. But, part of that is because the three turf races have the rail at 30 feet, limiting the fields to nine. So, things remain good with field sizes (and betting opportunities.)

Bob Ike’s SA play of the day

EIGHTH RACE: No. 1 Eagle Screams (4-1)

Old-timer from Jeff Bonde stable makes his first start since June and first start over the Santa Anita turf course. However, the 12-for-60 lifetime pro has a steady seven-day work pattern, is drawn favorably inside (auxiliary rails out are out 30 feet) and gets top turf rider Kent Desormeaux. Look for him to fire a good shot off the bench.

Monday Result: Red Shelby set the pace but backed up badly through the stretch in the ninth race.

Bob Ike is a Partner/VP of Horsebills.com and the proprietor of BobIkePicks.com (full-card picks, 3 Best Plays and betting strategy).

Los Alamitos weekend preview

I’ve decided to leave this weekly segment in the hands of Orlando Gutierrez, marketing and media maven at Los Al. So, take it away, Orlando.

“An excellent field in which seven of eight starters have already won at least one stakes race at Los Alamitos will run in the $25,000 Cypress Handicap at 350 yards on Friday at Los Alamitos. First post is 7 p.m.

“The most accomplished runner is Ron Hartley’s One Proud Eagle, as the gelding won the Robert Adair Kindergarten Futurity and John Deere Juvenile Challenge Championship in 2016 while entering with the highest career earnings of $304,983. He has hit the board in 10 of 13 career starts. One Proud Eagle will be ridden by Cesar De Alba carrying 123 pounds. Jess A Cowboy and Stelfast are the co-high weights at 125 pounds. The 6-year-old Jess A Cowboy won the Blane Schvaneveldt Handicap and He Flys Handicap at Los Alamitos last year, while Stelfast won the El Primero Del Ano Derby on April 2.

“On Saturday night, six starters from the Grade 1 Los Alamitos Two Million Futurity a month ago plus two other Grade 1 futurity finalists in 2017 are among the 40 sophomores that will race in the trials to the Grade 1 Los Alamitos Winter Derby on Saturday at Los Alamitos. The horses with the 10 fastest times in the 400-yard trials will be back in the final on Feb. 10.

“The Winter Derby trials will be headed by Moonie Blues, who ran second to champion J Fire Up in the Two Million, and Matilda Czech, second to J Fire Up in the Grade 1 Golden State Million.

“Sunday night will have an eight-race card headed by a pair of 400-yard trials to the Grade 1 Brad McKinzie Los Alamitos Winter Championship. The trials will be headed by BH Lisas Boy, the Winter Championship winner last year. The Brad McKinzie final is set for Feb. 11.”

Ed Burgart LA play of the day

SECOND RACE: No. 4 Double A Kaf A (2-1)

She forced a fast pace in a race that produced three next-out winners when fading to eighth over the daytime Los Al one-mile oval in last start one month ago. Now, the filly returns to the night 5/8-mile surface where she finished second twice vs. much tougher fields late last year. She is effective from on/off the pace and finds plenty of cheap speed to chase.

Final thought

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And now, the star of the show, Friday’s entries.